Is Facebook doomed?
Ahh, the patina is shedding off of Facebook.
Looks like the trend I noticed when I was in London talking with Maryam’s niece in December has hit home for Facebook. Is usage down?
My own usage is certainly down. Here’s why:
First, Facebook depresses me. I can’t add new friends, so the “game, er, fun” of Facebook has gone away for me (yes, building my social network was fun for me). Now, I know most of you don’t have that problem, but it does create a retardant effect on the fun of Facebook. It can NOT be a “utility” like a rolodex until it gets rid of all limitations.
But this morning I got a call from someone in France. He was kicked out of Facebook for sending too many messages to his friends. He said he was just chatting with his friends, not doing anything spammy (he only had a handful of friends, he told me). This isn’t the first time I’ve heard this kind of story, I get dozens of such emails every month from people who’ve gotten kicked off the service for not doing too much other than participating in Facebook the way they want.
Anyway, Facebook kicked him off (turned off his account, like they did to me) and now there is no way for him to get added back on. He’s emailed an explanation of what he’s been doing to Facebook. They haven’t answered back. There is no recourse. It’s made more difficult because this guy doesn’t speak English well.
As much as I like Mark Zuckerberg, I can not recommend Facebook to anyone until they fix this problem. There’s ABSOLUTELY NO WAY someone’s account should be deleted without recourse, if Facebook wants to be seen as a utility.
Facebook needs to fix these two problems before I’ll recommend it again to anyone.
One other thing? I’m getting spamish messages on Facebook now because I added hundreds of groups. I’m going to unsubscribe from most of them to keep that from happening. I already have too many attention thieves in my life.
But, to the question of “is Facebook doomed?”
No, it’s not. It still is the best designed, and best performing, social network out there. It fits my idea of what a rolodex, er, address book, should look like. I love the iPhone app. The way it all works. I love seeing photos and videos from my friends.
I just wish Facebook would fix these two problems so I can go back to hyping it up.
What do you think about Facebook? Has the patina worn off for you?
Powered By 
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:20 pm
I agree with your post.
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Facebook never had much “shine” for me. I joined, added a few friends, joined a handful of groups. Noticed that there wasn’t much going on in the groups. Started getting regular “Facebook apps spam”. Noticed that the friends in my book and I were already doing plenty of communicating via Twitter, LinkedIn, and other social networks. Ergo, I haven’t been into Facebook in about six weeks, haven’t posted there in even longer. Ho hum. Life goes on.
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:35 pm
I am getting such a kick out of all of this fuss over a dip in pageviews that is being depicted as the plateauing of social networks like Facebook.
As anyone who has been around this internetty type thing or even the old BBS era can tell you the larger part of what is happening has happened since the days of NNTP newsgroups and web forums.
As both Frederic at The Last Podcast (http://www.lastpodcast.net/2008/02/21/social-network-shrinkage-i-wish/) and I (http://www.winextra.com/2008/02/22/social-network-shrinkage-blame-mother-nature/) have noted that this seasonal cycle is an intregal part of our online lifestyle.
As I also said on TechCrunch .. it must be a slow newsday when this makes it as a news item.
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Patina is usually something that wears on, not off. It’s an pleasing aging effect. The metaphor I’d use is that Facebook is rusting rather than getting a patina.
I’m a less avid user now. I dread the apps which default to spamming my friends. I know that now and again, I’m going to forget to take the extra steps to by-pass the spam. That’s just evil. Evil.
I’m also highly suspicious that anything they do to monetize the service will exploit me, and my reputation (such as it is), and my contact list in ways that will piss me off. I think they may be in a bind about that.
But, I agree with you that FB is the best we’ve seen so far. The only thing better than FB would be an improved FB.
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Yeah I’m using it less as well, notice the fatigue, even have contacts quiting and I’m making less new contacts than 6 months ago.
That said I prefer Facebook to anything other SN. They are clever people and they hire great people as well! The fallback might be a wakeup call to work with the customer better than they do now. The PR side really needs to shift up at least 2 gears. Hire people who will be visible as FB employees… get them interacting with the community and take a page from Robert’s time at Microsoft.
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:41 pm
We all know how much you lover hosting your site on WordPress.com. And hopefully, they’ll be moving more towards adopting the DiSo Project’s philosophy of allowing you, the “site owner” to develop and control their own social network. A lot of what DiSo stands for and is promoting would solve many of the issues that you currently have with Facebook. Plus, with your lovely mug attached to DiSo, like you have with Data Portability, the group that could provide you with solutions might get there that much faster! Maybe you could give Chris Messina a jingle and help the cause?!?
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Michael: well, a patina is something that usually adds value. If you watch the Antiques Roadshow, you’ll see that people who clean the patina off of things like furniture or sculptures usually dramatically reduce their value. That’s what I was going for.
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:58 pm
facebook is still huge here on college campus, usa. i am a member of a college network and a geographical network for my city; i almost never mess with the geographical network. perhaps facebook is best suited as a network for college kids, as it was originally created. the only thing i’m getting sick of is all the bogus spam applications that junk up people’s profiles and my inbox.
February 22nd, 2008 at 3:45 pm
I think the hype of Facebook is definitely slowing down here in Norway, just as the numbers from the UK suggest. Most people don’t see it as a true utility, and are sick of being invited to all kinds of odd applications. When they do decide to add an app, they often involuntarily spam 15 or so of their own friends, in turn giving them a bad reputation and a crappy feeling. Add this to your list of things to fix, and I think Facebook will continue to grow…
February 22nd, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Sick of it, waiting for the next social
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Facebook?
Beacon!
Pass.
Seriously, I can’t stand the thought of the privacy issues. The future? FB won’t be able to adequately monetize pageviews via advertising, and someone, probably Apple, will develop a secure, encrypted, client side app that tracks people’s social database for them. We need a cognitive prosthesis* for managing our relationships, not a corporation.
*see Charlie Stross, passim.
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Yep, I’m over it. Though to be fair, I’m pretty much over the whole social thing anyway. I’m not sure why we need them anymore. Don’t we already have a social network called the internet. Some may still serve a purpose, like goodreads or fanstory, but most are just a waste of time, and don’t offer much in the way of useful interaction. But that’s just me.
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Definately. I’ve removed all of my core personal details (although they no doubt still exist on some db within for future use against me), whittled down my apps to a core few and reject every invite that now comes my way.
I feel saturated by the whole thing and see my usage, as well of that of my contacts, dipping on weekly basis. I guess that this is inline with recent result of FB usage in the UK.
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Well, time to find some new shiny thing(s)…hype up the next promises of salvation.
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:39 pm
[...] Scoble just wrote a post that says his Facebook usage has been going down and he asks Is Facebook doomed? On the other hand, I did some research of my own using comScore MyMetrix and was able to see that [...]
February 22nd, 2008 at 5:02 pm
[...] Sure, it could just be a swipe at a giant, but Scoble is no slouch himself so when he asks if Facebook is doomed, it’s probably worth taking [...]
February 22nd, 2008 at 6:07 pm
Are you serious?
It wasnt that long ago when every other post was praising facebook. finally figured out the scam robert?
February 22nd, 2008 at 6:07 pm
Would facebook “wear off” for anyone here simply to be replaced by another different social networking site? Not for me. I see it as the last social network site where everyone involved must also participate in the same site. I think facebook and any social networking site will eventually either fall into disuse or come to represent a particular demographic niche, but the structure of social networking in general is here to stay. As dataportability catches hold, the next thing after facebook is simply keeping track of your friends… your social graph… regardless of the particular platform/context/framework/virtual-world that you find yourself working within at the moment.
February 22nd, 2008 at 6:13 pm
And Michael, I agree that the patina metaphor is strange. I immediately thought what you said, that patina is something that “wears on” over time. If I left a shiny copper penny in the yard for long enough it would develop a patina. Then I discussed it with a friend and he suggested that patina is often a coating added to “fake a look” - usually to make something look older than it is, so that when the “patina wears off,” something is revealed as a fake. When patina is real, it indicates age and that is why rubbing it off of a thing you want to sell that is valuable *because* of its age is a bad idea.
February 22nd, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Each of these monolithic sites has a life-cycle.
They begin with no members and are useless, they grow enough to catch fire, or reach a critical mass and they explode to the enjoyment of many.
After a while they loose relevance. They can’t grow much more and their purpose becomes blurry and finally, they start the Death phase.
Death means they still get used, but the truth is that the number of new users don’t really reach the number who are leaving the site.
Facebook is clearly in the midst of this last stage, I suggest they sell to Microsoft soon and count their money.
February 22nd, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Turn it into the Internet’s address book, and they can get back on the hypergrowth track. Make a coral reef instead of just a shipwreck.
February 22nd, 2008 at 8:04 pm
All this social networking is making me tired. FaceBook was nice when it was new and fresh. Now it just feels like a chore to sift through all those profiles and keep tabs on the world. I feel like I have other—more important—things to do than read my friends’ incongruous wall postings and delete the latest barrage of app spam.
February 22nd, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Facebook is a social networking utility which works remarkably well for the market it was designed for — college students. It serves as a great intermediary between sitting half a room away from a peer and striking up daily conversations with them, and it is just as useful in finding people with common interests and seeing who knows who.
I never expected Facebook to take off as a business model, however — anyone I want to make a serious connection with, I would much rather send an email or place a phone call to them. Meshing pleasure and business rarely works well in real life, why expect it to succeed on the internet?
Facebook may very well prove to be just a fad for the adult, business-minded demographics (and haven’t sites liked LinkedIn proven to work as a far more focused utility?), but I anticipate that it will continue to run strong for the college crowds.
February 22nd, 2008 at 8:41 pm
They need establish some standards with the applications and enforce them. Spamming needs to be a selectable option that starts out in the No position when you add an app. They need to absolutely stop their whole commercial priority at the cost of our privacy. I am very tempted to get entirely off even though I like SNS’s and enjoyed Ryze quite a bit in 2003 for a while. The guestbooks (similar to the Facebook Wall) and customizable HTML home pages as an option were pretty cool at that time. I’m not so sure Facebook has subscribed to Don’t be Evil. They need to clean up their act if they want to stay on top — or come out with incredibly compelling new features we can’t live without.
February 22nd, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Facebook will not address these problems until it absolutely is forced to, either by a mass exodus or by a better and truly ‘open’ platform, from which you can export your friends contact information, which you already own.
Still wondering why we don’t have an open-source social network, which can be paid for the same way wikipedia pays for all those servers and bandwidth. Maybe all we need is an initiative?
February 23rd, 2008 at 1:15 am
You’re outta your mind Bob. FB is growing at a very aggressive rate. Your requests are edge cases that probably affect less than 1 percent of the user base. If I was PM’ing at FB I would prioritize these asks very low.
February 23rd, 2008 at 1:29 am
Ryan: you’re crazy if you think the second issue doesn’t affect everyone. The fear you’re gonna get kicked off keeps a TON of people from using Facebook and the technical limitations (5,000 friends, give me a break) also keep it from being a true utility.
February 23rd, 2008 at 1:40 am
Facebook usage in the UK doesn’t surprise me with the limited anecdotal evidence from my own life. Part of the problem is many private business, in additional to NHS trusts, across the country have started blocking access to the site. This stop casual browsing and stops feeding the positive feedback loop social by which networking sites live and die.
Internationally, the larger problem is “friend saturation”–the paradoxical phenomenon where social networking site usage decreases as the number of potential new addable friends decreases for individual users. Facebook partially mitigated this effect with profile specific mini-feeds and the news-feed but the signal-to-noise ratio with applications and spammy information has made them nearly useless. Introducing controls to show/hide options on the news feed and limiting application spamming is too little too late.
Ultimately users need something to do on a social networking site once they are allowed access. Finding friends and consensual stalking are the bread-and-butter of sites like Facebook. The only way Facebook will continue to be relevant beyond 2008 is if they implement:
1. A simple but robust privacy system so people don’t fear mixing work and personal friends in their lists.
2. A robust private messaging system rivaling established webmail systems out there with open IMAP/POP3 access.
3. Splitting the mini-feed such that user actions are separated from application notifications. The same should be done for the main news feed.
4. Forcing application developers to stop forcing invites.
5. Allowing higher-resolution photo uploads.
6. Tighter integration with mobile phones and text messaging a la iPhone/Blackberry/J2ME phone applications. This could be helped by possibly forging alliances with mobile phone vendors.
7. Integration of web feeds from other Web 2.0 sites much like Plaxo Pulse.
The point is to make sure Facebook has usefulness to people beyond the “friend saturation” phase.
February 23rd, 2008 at 1:57 am
I keep my Facebook account because it helps some old friends find me. They could just type my name into Google and send me an email, but seriously, there must be people who don’t even think to do that.
February 23rd, 2008 at 8:07 am
[...] point is usually good enough for Robert Scoble to be able to draw a line. In his recent post, Is Facebook Doomed?, he links Facebook’s downturn to it’s limitation of 5,000 friends which seems to affect [...]
February 23rd, 2008 at 8:07 am
yes, it’s doomed! and just yesterday it was the next Google…!
you Bloggers are a riot:)
February 23rd, 2008 at 8:14 am
I got tired of facebook over two years ago. with the exception of a couple of people everyone who was my friend was someone I spoke to on a daily basis in person.
It seemed useless to me but I found it very odd that no matter how hard I tried, Facebook wouldn’t let me delete my account. Anyone else have this problem?
And seeing how I still have an account on there, I check it maybe every 6 weeks or so out of curiosity and man, all those useless applications they added over the years just doesn’t do anything for me.
February 23rd, 2008 at 8:14 am
Reasons I deactivated:
1. Application spam.
2. Experian (irritating UK company who were all over everything every time I went on - way too intrusive).
3. Aimlessness.
4. As pointed out above, lack of access via work (at lunchtimes, of course) means that fun and utility aspect is fatally impaired.
5. I have email, a blog, scrabble software for web use, and Flickr, all, of course, elsewhere - not sure much else needed web-social wise.
February 23rd, 2008 at 8:23 am
Nice post, my own Facebook usage is down too, although I’m not sure if its because I’m more introverted these days or if its due to FB itself.
A few of my friends have also been kicked off because of sending too many messages, that’s really strange thing for a social network to do, and I just like everyone else am highly irritated by the spam from Applications and Group messages.
At the end of the day its still the best way for me to meet new people, so I’m hanging around some more.
February 23rd, 2008 at 8:26 am
Patrick, You’re spot-on. Application spam is horrendous. Designed for high school and college kids — not adults balalancing work, family, outside interests. Seems facebook is trying to be all things to all people. Will be interesting to see what happens with the 60+ million member number.
February 23rd, 2008 at 9:10 am
I think Facebook is good for keeping up with old friends, but if falls apart beyond that. They won’t let you change your name and adding any semblance of privacy to your account is way too difficult. Meeting new people on Facebook is hard because unless you are part of their social sphere or have an app, you really can’t get a hold of them. I am also not comfortable allowing strangers access to what I am up to. And I don’t think it is the best site. I think it is overhyped now and the new Myspace.
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:28 am
Robert
we probably had a chance for Facebook to expand beyond 5000 friends, but after you scraped it, I doubt they’re going to want to do that again, in fear of this being a rolodex scraper.
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:30 am
Im mildy enjoying facebook robert, having read all your posts and seen what happened to you Im not enjoying the FB experience .
I got totally miffed when all my so called friends spam me with app invites ,, zombie , vampire all the crap
Ive for this USerscript that blocks all them annoying apps . Its the best thing since slide bread
http://userscripts.org/scripts/show/12393
Facebook needs to become more user friendly .
People need to know that there data wont be held hostage . Deleting an account should occur in minutes and not days .
jp
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:34 am
In the beginning I , used Facebook! I made a few comments on Blogs after a while, that Facebook has no order and therefore how could one advertise and aim for a specific market ! I was of course told I was wrong ! Then I posted that Facebook was an expensive experiment and might be the next Edsel , without executives who under stood marketing ! I still feel it is an experiment that has proved money does not always cover up mistakes in judgement, cause as we, know Scobie you can’t buy judgement ! I am 71 years old had a lot of belly to belly marketing experience and have a few scars ! I hate to see anyone fail that had a shot at it, but the facebook shot has missed the target ! I am sure Mark is a good person but he needs advice from marketing pro,s not geeks ! Why do I read Scobie? Cause there is effective generic content here !
Facebook must realize that content is king not site full of screwy one time apps!
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:38 am
[...] Is Facebook doomed? « Scobleizer — Tech geek blogger Leave a Comment [...]
February 23rd, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Time to review some classics:
http://scobleizer.com/2007/10/02/steve-ballmer-still-doesnt-understand-social-networking/
http://scobleizer.com/2007/07/28/calacanis-cant-keep-up-with-facebook/
http://scobleizer.com/2007/07/24/facebook-wall-update-coming-tonight/
http://scobleizer.com/2007/07/20/what-would-get-me-and-others-to-shut-up-about-facebook/
http://scobleizer.com/2007/07/12/why-facebook-why-now/
February 23rd, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Larry: yup, and you’ve never changed your mind about something as you’ve gotten older and wiser?
February 23rd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Scoble - totally with you here. Not only are the messages from groups getting super-spammy, the zillion invites from applications are a headache: NO I don’t want a Zombie Kiss or a Rubber Duckie gift…thanks anyways.
Preach on!
February 23rd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
When I read how Zuckerberg went to breakfast with a dictator (and took you along) I lost any pleasure in Facebook:
Mark Zuckerberg, founder/CEO of Facebook, which now has 68 million active users (people who’ve signed on in the past 30 days).
He invited me to a breakfast with Pakistani President, Pervez Musharraf. We walked together to the breakfast, which was interesting because of Musharraf’s comments, where he defended his administration.
February 23rd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Ivan Pope: it wasn’t a personal breakfast, it was a breakfast presentation to about 100 people at Davos.
February 23rd, 2008 at 7:29 pm
FB sux bigtime. Always has. Cute utility for a campus-wide network but puke-iferous when it went global.
February 23rd, 2008 at 8:07 pm
Robert,
I don’t think facebook is doomed at all. At it’s core facebook is a communication platform. Applications allows new and different forms of communication.
Facebook is the most efficient and effective and egaing social network that i have ever used.
I agree with you… they seriously need to remove the limitations. They also need to be careful about how people are kicked off and the course for reinstatement.
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
I’ve written a desktop app that lets users receive and send Facebook messages from a regular email client (www.fblocalmail.com); handling messages in this way would also let users leverage whatever tools they have for spam filtering and information management. I’m yet to include notifications (I’m developing it in my spare time), but support will be there eventually.
February 24th, 2008 at 12:02 am
@42. Yea, but that usually happens over a span of years, not months. This seems to be the proverbial “irrational exuberance”
February 24th, 2008 at 6:44 am
Social networking is a hype.
February 24th, 2008 at 6:54 am
Shear inertia and numbers saves Facebook, but they are vulnerable until they address issues like these. I am not impressed with management.
February 24th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Robert,
For me this network is definately out. For many reasons the most important one is that friends that I regularly meet with are not on it and do not see themselves on it either. Furhtermore it seems like companies are looking at these networks as an excuse not to hire you or give you insurance or any such thing that they deem inappropriate.
Facebook for me is out of the picture and I am happy to say my life is better for it. Too many time wasters and not enough sites that help get what I want when I want it.
Just my two cents of course
Thanks,
Richard
February 24th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
crazy about the guy that was just chatting with his friends?
February 24th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
[...] Scoble has asked a question that has been in the back of my mind for a little while now:“What do you think about Facebook? Has the patina worn off for you?” [...]
February 25th, 2008 at 12:25 am
[...] Scoble ruminates about the limitations of Facebook, prompted by figures suggesting usage is falling, and also the experience of himself and [...]
February 25th, 2008 at 2:59 am
[...] Is Facebook doomed? - [...]
February 25th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Good Article
February 25th, 2008 at 11:28 am
I still like facebook, especially for connecting with old friends, but I am SO OVER the application requests. If they had a button that let you either not get requests, or delete all in one go, that would be nice.
February 25th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
OMG OMG OMG WTF
I think ure site cursed me! read this last night!
& TODAY FACEBOOK WARNED TO BLOCK ME FOR SPAMMING. & i just reply my friends!
FACEBOOK SUX!!
February 29th, 2008 at 7:49 am
Love to respond Robert but too busy digging out from under all these cows, drinks, games and…
March 1st, 2008 at 2:41 pm
[...] post, this one by Robert Scoble, talks about what I has just said. Boredom. Also, there has been many people being kicked [...]
March 4th, 2008 at 7:08 am
[...] Is Facebook doomed? Great article by Robert Scoble [...]
March 18th, 2008 at 11:46 am
[...] due to popularity (and while NOT running a script) is quite alarming to me (Scoble details it here and here). Scoble also interviewed Nathan Stebeski who recently who got kicked off Facebook for [...]
March 28th, 2008 at 8:25 am
[...] Robert Scoble asks if Facebook is doomed… [...]
April 4th, 2008 at 12:20 am
[...] this may not rate as important news. In fact, Scoble had a Feb. 22, 2008 post up on his blog titled Is Facebook Doomed? But there, his issue is primarily one of limits on the number of friends and messages. He still [...]